BY MARCEL MBAMALU

When only 14 out of 100 registered voters show up at the polls, democracy is on life support. When a citizen’s voter data slips from inside the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) into a politician’s phone, the system is hemorrhaging.

With Ekiti and Osun governorship polls weeks away and the 2027 general elections on the horizon, one question now cuts deeper than ballot papers: Has INEC become the biggest threat to the very elections it is meant to protect?

The bottom line is that INEC isn’t protecting voters. It’s pushing them out.

The Six-Month Blackout: CVR in Name, Disenfranchisement in Practice
Sections 9 and 10 of the Electoral Act 2022 say voter registration must be continuous. INEC obeyed the letter and strangled the spirit.

In 2022, the Commission slammed the Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) door on June 30, six full months before the 2023 presidential poll. Queues stretched for miles. The Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) went to court. Only after public outrage did INEC add 31 days. By then, millions were locked out.

Fast forward to 2026: CVR is scheduled to stop on August 30. Elections start January 2027. That is the same 180-day blackout. What exactly will INEC do in six months that justifies shutting millions out of the register?

Compare that to Canada, where you can register at the polling unit on election day. Or New Zealand, where enrolment closes days before the poll. Ghana runs continuous registration and sends SMS alerts when PVCs are ready. Nigeria locks citizens out half a year early. Whose democracy is this?

Access Denied: When Polling Units Become Obstacle Courses
INEC’s job under Section 2 of the Electoral Act is not just to count votes. It must educate voters and guarantee access. Yet ask a trader in Nyanya, Abuja: Where is your polling unit? How do you transfer your PVC? What happens when BVAS rejects your thumbprint?

Silence

The Commission spends billions on TV jingles. Meanwhile, voters in Lugbe and Kuje trek up to eight kilometres because nobody told them their polling unit moved. Thousands of PVCs gather dust in ward offices because INEC never sent a single text message to owners.

Voter education is not a press release. It is a door knock. INEC is not knocking.

Data for Sale: The Emeka Ike Leak and the Death of Privacy
This was not a hack. INEC admitted it. An “electoral officer” used “official credentials” to pull actor Emeka Ike’s voter record. Lere Olayinka, spokesman to FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, then posted it online. Two clear violations of the Nigeria Data Protection Act 2023. Zero arrests. Zero sanctions.

The 1999 Constitution calls INEC “independent”. But independence is not ink on paper. It is handcuffs on offenders. If staff can leak data to a minister’s aide, they can leak it to parties, governors, and godfathers. Your phone number, home address, face, and thumbprint – all potentially for sale.

How do you trust a referee who bets on the match?

The Numbers Don’t Lie: Turnout Is in Free Fall
The FCT Area Council poll was the autopsy. Out of 1,680,315 registered voters, only 239,210 voted. That is 14.2% turnout. Eighty-six percent stayed home.

Nationwide in 2023, 93.4 million Nigerians registered, but just 25.3 million voted. Sixty-eight million walked away.

They did not boycott. They were blocked – by distance, by deadlines, by doubt. When citizens believe “votes don’t count,” elections become theatre. INEC is selling the tickets.

2023 was the warning. FCT was the proof. 2027 is the verdict. Prof. Mahmood Yakubu’s INEC gave Nigeria 2023: disputed results, BVAS excuses, IReV glitches. Nigerians called it a heist. INEC called it “technical”.

Three months ago, Prof. Joash Amupitan’s team ran the FCT Council polls. Turnout crashed to 14.2%. Voters said polling units vanished overnight. INEC called it “reorganisation”. Translation: We moved your goalpost and didn’t tell you.

Ekiti and Osun are in weeks. The 2027 general elections are months away. Same umpire. Same playbook.

Independence on Paper, Impunity in Practice
Can an INEC officer leak data to a minister’s aide and keep his job? Yes.
Can INEC shut registration six months early despite the law? Yes.
Can it move polling units without telling voters? Yes.

That is not independence. That is impunity with an official stamp. And every day it stands, more Nigerians conclude: “My vote won’t count.” When belief dies, turnout dies. When turnout dies, democracy dies.

Who Benefits When the Polls Are Empty?
Ask yourself: Who wins when 86% stay home? Not the market woman who needs roads. Not the graduate who needs jobs. Not the farmer who needs security.

Low turnout favours political machines, moneybags, and incumbents. It favours those who can bus 14% of voters and call it a mandate. INEC’s failures are not bugs. For some, they are features.

Nigeria Is Walking Backwards While Others Move Forward
In Canada, people register and vote on election day. In ew Zealand, voters enrol days to the poll.
Ghana does continuous registration plus SMS collection alerts.

But in Nigeria? It’s six-month cutoff, eight-kilometre treks, zero SMS, leak your data, blame the network. We are not just behind. We are reversing.

Five Things INEC Must Do Now, or Stop Pretending
Kill the six-month blackout. Run CVR until 30 days before polls. If Canada can, INEC can.
Jail data leakers. Prosecute the officer who leaked Emeka Ike’s file. Prosecute Olayinka for publishing it. No sacred cows.

Take polling units to the people. Two kilometres maximum distance. Publish new maps 90 days before elections.

Text every voter. Banks send OTPs in seconds. INEC can send “Your PVC is ready at Ward 5.”
Name, shame, sanction. Every BVAS failure must list the officer, polling unit, and penalty. No more “technical glitch”.

The Final Verdict: INEC Is on Trial
The Constitution gave INEC one job – free, fair, credible elections. The evidence says it is failing.

Registration blocks voters. Education misses them. Data leaks expose them. Polling units hide from them. Turnout mocks them.

The 2027 elections are not just another cycle. They are a referendum on INEC itself. If the umpire cannot protect access, privacy, and trust, then it is not an umpire. It is a saboteur in an INEC vest.

You cannot kill voter trust and expect democracy to live. INEC has months to prove it is not the killer. The clock is not ticking. It is screaming.

• Dr Marcel Mbamalu is a Lagos-based policy analyst and publisher. He writes on governance, elections, economy and public accountability.

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