A N100,000 investment in Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals could potentially turn into N1 million within one or two years if the company’s share price records a major increase, according to Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote.

Dangote made the projection while discussing the refinery’s ongoing initial public offering on Arise TV on Tuesday, September 15, 2026.

His comments have attracted significant attention from Nigerian investors, particularly retail investors who are watching closely as the highly anticipated Dangote Refinery IPO opens opportunities to own a stake in one of the country’s biggest industrial projects.

The refinery’s shares are currently being offered to investors at N525 per share under the IPO. Dangote expressed optimism that the share price could rise considerably in the future, suggesting that it could potentially reach between N5,000 and N10,000, depending on market conditions.

When asked about the possibility of the share price reaching N10,000, the business mogul did not rule it out.

Dangote pointed to the history of some listed companies whose share prices have risen substantially after their initial listing. He explained that shares that once traded at around N100 had, in some cases, climbed to N1,000.

He subsequently suggested that investors who put about N100,000 into the refinery could potentially become millionaires within one or two years if the shares perform as he anticipates.

The statement has naturally generated excitement among investors, but it is important to understand what the projection actually means.

At the current IPO price of N525, N100,000 would buy approximately 190 shares if the entire amount could be invested at that price, before taking account of transaction costs and any allocation limitations.

If those 190 shares eventually reached N5,000 each, their value would be about N950,000. At N10,000 per share, the same holding would be worth approximately N1.9 million. That illustrates the scale of the potential return Dangote was referring to.

However, reaching either price level is not guaranteed. Share prices are determined by market forces, including demand and supply, company performance, profitability, investor sentiment, economic conditions and broader developments in the financial market.

Dangote himself acknowledged that any movement toward the projected levels would depend on where the market takes the stock.

The comments come at a major moment for the Dangote Refinery, which has already attracted enormous attention from investors since the IPO opened. The offering comprises 4.1 billion ordinary shares at N525 each, giving the IPO a total value of about N2.15 trillion. The size of the offering makes it one of the most closely watched capital market transactions in Nigeria.

For many ordinary Nigerians, the attraction goes beyond simply owning shares in another listed company. The Dangote Refinery represents one of the largest private industrial investments in Africa and has become central to Nigeria’s ambition to reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products.

The facility, located in Lekki, Lagos, has a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day and is designed to process crude oil into products including petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and other petroleum products.

Its entry into the market has already changed the conversation around Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

For Dangote, encouraging Nigerians to invest and remain shareholders is also part of a broader argument about long-term wealth creation.

The billionaire urged investors not to rush to sell their shares, pointing instead to the possibility of earning dividends while retaining ownership.

He also highlighted the potential importance of dollar-linked dividend payments, arguing that investors receiving dividends in dollars could have some protection against the impact of naira depreciation.

This could be particularly attractive to Nigerians who are concerned about the declining purchasing power of the local currency.

But investors should separate the potential benefits from the risks. A company can perform strongly while its share price still experiences periods of decline. Market expectations can change quickly, and past performance by other stocks does not guarantee that Dangote Refinery shares will follow the same path.

The difference between the IPO price and Dangote’s projected price range is also substantial. A rise from N525 to N5,000 would represent an increase of more than eight times the IPO price, while N10,000 would represent almost 19 times the offer price. Such an increase would require extraordinary market performance and strong investor demand.

Nevertheless, the Dangote Refinery IPO has already demonstrated the enormous appetite surrounding the company, with PUNCH reporting that investors flooded the Nigerian Exchange shortly after the offer opened and subscriptions quickly reached billions of naira.

For Nigerians considering the investment, the immediate attraction is obvious. A relatively small amount of capital could potentially grow substantially if the share price performs exceptionally well.

But the key word is “potentially.” Dangote has expressed his optimism based on the future prospects of the refinery and his experience in the business world. Investors, however, must make their decisions based on their own financial circumstances, risk tolerance and understanding of the stock market.

The Dangote Refinery investment story is therefore not simply about the possibility of turning N100,000 into N1 million. It is also about whether Nigerians are prepared to think beyond short-term gains and participate in the ownership of major businesses through the capital market.

As the IPO continues to attract attention, investors will now be watching closely to see how the refinery’s shares perform once they become fully tradable on the Nigerian Exchange.

For those who choose to hold their shares for the long term, the real test will be whether Dangote Refinery can deliver the financial performance needed to justify the optimism surrounding its valuation.

For now, Dangote has put a bold possibility on the table. Whether N100,000 can really become N1 million in one or two years will ultimately be decided by the market.

• This article appeared originally in Diaspora Digital Media

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